An interesting question, this one: “Will Barack Obama’s election reduce demand for security products?”
It’s asked by Access Control & Security Systems and the answer it provides is, “Yes,” quoting a report by IP Video Market Info:
Here”s IP Video Market’s premlinary forecast:
• Expect many, if not most, US government projects in development to be put on hold until February 2009 (after the inauguration).
• Expect 2009 US spending on government related security technology to drop by 10 percent–20 percent relative to 2008. This includes direct military spending as well as homeland security and municipal projects funded by government grants.
• Expect overall US security demand to drop by 4 percent to 8 percent (given the large impact government has on overall security spending).
• Expect some reductions in global demand as other countries reduce their perceived need for anti-terrorism security measures.
All this because Obama is expected both to reduce defense spending and reduce tensions leading to hostility overseas.
“The security bubble is burst,” says IP Video Market Info. “With the election of Obama, U.S. demand for security products will drop significantly as subsidies for security technology are reduced and global tensions are eased. This will place significant pressure on businesses to justify the real ROI of security trechnology and it will contribute to falling industry growth.”
Trouble is, such an analysis, from what we’ve seen of it, doesn’t necessarily take account of actions, still feared, by terrorists who either don’t care about our election results or may choose to respond to them in their own way.