Al-Qaida Continually Refining Basic Tactics

Here’s a grisly “trend” story we’d prefer not to have to pass on, but it’s out there and a sign of our continually threatening  times:

In “Predicting the Next Bomb Plot,” James Carafano of the Heritage Foundation writes that a near-miss attack on a Saudi prince last summer illustrated three aspects of al-Qaida tactics.

1. They rely on familiar tactics.

2. They introduce a new wrinkle or two to improve the tactics and keep them “fresh”.

3. They’re patient, wait and attack again.

For example, the Taliban attack that killed seven seven CIA agents in Afghanistan recently was an updated “rerun” of the unsuccessful Saudi attempt last summer.  Accordingly, we can expect more of what’s already been tried, in commercial aviation and other settings.

Al-Qaida, says Carafano, is also expected to “keep trying to improve the three types of bombs they’ve used so far. They will continue to refine some type of ‘binary’ explosive — one that uses two or more ingredients, (is) apt to elude airport security checks, may be brought separately onto planes and then combined into a bomb.

“The fact that they have tried liquid explosives at least twice shows they think it’s a tactic still worth pursuing. Likewise, the Saudi strike shows that al-Qaida retains an unhealthy fascination with body bombs.

“And don’t rule out another 9/11. We have to assume that al-Qaida has not given up on hijacking planes.”

In short, there’s plenty of reason to remain continually alert, for tried or untried tactics.